On December 29, 2020, Mexico submitted its Updated NDC to the UNFCC.
The Mexican NDC does not enhance ambition of mitigation targets, which remain unchanged. According to Climate Action Tracker’s recent analysis, the BAU associated with these targets has been revised upwards in the NDC update, with a total emissions level in 2030 higher than that reported in the 2016 NDC. Given the NDC is defined as a percentage reduction below BAU projections, a higher emissions level in 2030 effectively reduces the country’s mitigation ambition, even if the reduction targets remain unchanged. The updated NDC is also less transparent than the original 2016 submission, which makes assessing the level of ambition more difficult. More transparency would also be desirable on how the consultation process inputs were incorporated in the NDC.
However, Mexico has advanced on the Adaptation component in considering nature-based solutions and linkages with SDGs. The NDC unfortunately does not reflect any commitment on phasing out fossil fuels and investing in renewable energy, a signal that contrasts with Mexico’s previous protagonism in the climate agenda with the first climate law in a developing country in 2012 and the Energy Transition Law of 2015. Considering that Mexico has been ranked between the 11 -13th global GHG emitter and is the second Latin American economy country, our analysis concludes that the updated NDC has a Long Way to Go* to become the NDC We Want according to our checklist.