Posted on June, 13 2025

The need for international resolve to tackle climate change has never been greater, in the context of worsening climate impacts and geopolitics. With the imminent release of its next climate plan for the Paris Agreement (NDC 3.0), China has the opportunity and incentives to show that resolve, and to demonstrate a model of climate action, based on the decarbonisation of “the world’s workshop”.

China is important to the Paris Agreement. It is the world’s largest emitter, but over the last year, China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have plateaued and begun to fall – even as demand for power continues to rise. Its massive investment in electrification and clean power generation - over 60% of global investments of renewable energy last year were in China - means that the world’s second-largest economy may have finally broken the link between its economic growth and ever-rising greenhouse gas emissions.

This could herald the beginning of a structural decline in those emissions and fulfil the government’s pledge of peaking CO2 by 2030 well ahead of schedule.

China currently accounts for almost a third of annual global greenhouse gas emissions. The rapid growth of its economy, dominated by emissions-intensive manufacturing, and huge roll out of fossil-fuel infrastructure has seen its emissions soar in recent decades. But the Chinese government increasingly recognises its social and economic vulnerability to climate change and the role of the international climate regime in fighting it.

Speaking at a recent UN-convened conference, China’s President Xi Jinping stressed the importance of multilateralism, international cooperation, the free-flow of green technologies and ensuring a socially just transition towards low-carbon economies.

The Paris Agreement in peril – a chance to lead?

China’s praise for the international order comes at an important time for the multilateral architecture constructed to respond to climate change. The decision by the Trump Administration to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again is both a setback for the global climate movement, and an opportunity for other countries to play a bigger role in driving systemic change through policies and technology. 

China has consistently over-delivered on its goals under the Paris Agreement, which leaves a margin to substantially improve their NDC this round. As well as being set to peak emissions earlier than planned, China has already smashed its renewable energy target to install 1,200 gigawatts of wind and solar by 2030, with 1,400 GW installed to date – this is more than the entire power generating capacity from all sources of the US  and more than double that of the EU. 

China has an economic incentive to encourage the net-zero transition: it is the world’s leading exporter of wind turbines, solar panels, battery packs and components, electric vehicles and other technologies that will enable the world to decarbonise.

This year in particular, The Paris Agreement would greatly benefit from bolder, leading statements of this (achievable) ambition from China.

Stepping up with new targets – momentum and hope

At the virtual, closed-door UN Leaders Meeting on Climate and the Just Transition in April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China would update its Paris Agreement targets before COP30 in Brazil in November. He has already pledged that China’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) will set economy-wide emissions targets, covering all greenhouse gases – which will be progress on its current 2060 net-zero target, which only applies to CO2.

China has the opportunity to strengthen its national climate and energy pledges in its NDC 3.0 in a number of ways, which would address the Paris Agreement requirement to improve NDCs over time, and serve as an inspiration for other countries to make their best efforts.  It could shift from carbon intensity targets to absolute GHG targets. It could shift its renewables goals from nameplate capacity to utilisation, making the grid improvements needed to ensure that clean power drives fossil energy off the grid more quickly. It could set out sector-specific decarbonisation strategies, particularly for heavy industry, transportation and power, to ensure that high-level goals are translated into concrete action. And it could improve its reporting and accounting, publicly disclosing progress toward targets at regular intervals, including detailed metrics and data. This would enhance domestic accountability and international credibility.

And of course China’s credibility could also be enhanced by its engagement in supporting other developing countries to overcome technological bottlenecks and enable deeper global emissions reductions.

Historically, emission reductions have been driven by the consumer countries of the West – partly through phasing out fossil fuels and moving to renewables, but also by ‘offshoring’ their manufacturing and hence emissions to the developing world. Now, China is starting to show how a developing country can cut its emissions, while continuing to grow its economy. With new ambitious emissions-reduction targets, submitted at the earliest possible date, China has the opportunity to reinject momentum into the international climate process.