Posted on 01 December 1997    
Conclusions of the report (chapter 5, page 31) This study is a simulation of CO2 emission reductions between 2000 and 2010 using the AIM, which assumes two scenarios; the Contemporary Materialistic Nation and the Creative/Knowledge Intensive Nation scenario. The economic growth rate is presumed to be 2.3% annually in both scenarios. The energy consumption of industrial, transport, residential and commercial sectors are calculated under these scenarios and the CO2 emissions are quantified accordingly. The result of the Creative/Knowledge-Intensive Nation Scenario is as follows. If the policy is focused only on introduction of existing energy saving technology and no new policy is adopted as in the AIM standard case, CO2 emission will increase by 9.6% in 2005 and 12.9% in 2010 compared to the 1990 level. However, if effective energy saving policies, including regulations and subsidies are adopted and various new efficient technologies are introduced as in the WWF case, the level of CO2 emissions will be reduced by 8.6% in 2005 and 14.8% in 2010 from the 1990 level. The additional options the WWF case include are Keidanren's Voluntary Action Program, reduction of stand-by mode electricity consumption, efficient vending machines, and introduction of hybrid cars that are twice as efficient as conventional cars, efficient refrigerators, high performance industrial furnaces and other energy efficient technologies. We have considered the necessary policies and measures to achieve these results, and we have presented the Key Technology Policies to reduce CO2 emissions effectively. The basic concept of this policy is as follows,  Today the energy price is so low that energy saving is not stimulated.  The social mechanism encourages people to spend much energy.  There are many kinds of efficient energy saving technologies available.  Lack of information is a major reason that efficient technologies are not widely used.  The national policy can stimulate industrial aggressive innovation and reduce the cost of these efficient technologies through research and development.  If the government defines Key Technologies and declares they are critical for the well being of the country, innovations to reduce CO2 emissions will start to progress.  National policies should be changed in an innovative way to reduce CO2 emission.

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