Forests: What future do we want?

In 2000, the tropical forests in our world looked something like this:

If we did nothing, and carried on depleting our forests at the rate we do today, then by 2100, here's what we'd be left with:

To understand what ZNDD would mean in practice, WWF developed the Living Forests Model with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The model allows us to explore various global land-use scenarios. It calculates the effect of forces such as population growth and consumer demand, and describes possible consequences on key areas such as food production, climate change, biodiversity, commodity prices and economic development.

The Living Forests Model helps us understand the implications of certain choices, but also raises questions. As we seek answers, we must remember that models can’t account for the idiosyncrasies of real life. The model suggests:

• It is possible to achieve ZNDD by 2020, through better governance, a shift to sound forest stewardship and more productive use of arable non-forest land. By failing to make that shift, we squander valuable forests.
• Maintaining ZNDD after 2030, as population and incomes grow, requires forestry and farming practices that produce more with less land and water, and new consumption patterns that meet the needs of the poor while eliminating waste and over-consumption. With such changes, ZNDD can be maintained without creating shortfalls in food, timber, biomaterials or bioenergy.
• Delaying ZNDD until 2030, or taking “half-measures”, would lead to huge and irreversible losses in biodiversity and ecosystem services.
• To prevent runaway climate change, we need to address emissions from deforestation and forest degradation now; the longer we leave this, the harder it will become.

• Biodiversity: ZNDD should never be at the expense of biodiversity conservation; for example, agricultural expansion in highly biodiverse grasslands to take pressure off forests. Strategies should immediately prioritize forests with highest biodiversity, so these are not lost during the time it takes to achieve ZNDD.
• Governance: ZNDD is only possible under good governance: forests with secure land tenure, effective laws and policies, and empowered communities whose rights are respected.
• Market demand: much destructive forest use is encouraged by market demand, but markets can also drive better management. Incentives for high social and environmental standards in forestry and farming, and bans on trade in illegally sourced timber can help achieve this.
• Lifestyle and consumption: crop and livestock production play a major role in forest loss. Strategies are needed to reduce food waste, meat and dairy intake, energy use and over- consumption among richer people, and to ensure poor people have the food, energy and materials they need to lead healthy, productive lives.
• Local livelihoods: global plans must recognize local needs. ZNDD needs to be adapted nationally, regionally and locally to ensure that conservation doesn’t harm people’s welfare.

Conserving our forests is possible – and urgent.

But it won’t be easy.

We face some uncomfortable choices and trade-offs, and WWF doesn’t have all the answers.

But the questions raised in the Living Forests Report can’t be put off for another generation. The time to act is now.