WWF - Climate & people

Climate Witness: Rifi Hamdani, Indonesia

2010-06-12

My name is Rifi Hamdani, 31. I live on Derawan Island, East Kalimantan, Indonesia and work as a dive guide at the Maratua Paradise Resort. Unpredictable weather has made an impact on underwater tourism here.

I have been working as a dive guide since 2002. There are about 20 diving spots in the surrounding area of Sangalaki, Derawan, Maratua and Kakaban islands.

Uncertain and unpredictable weather

Based on my observation, the weather is now uncertain and unpredictable. Usually, strong waves occurred from mid-July to mid-September. But now, this is changing. This year, large and strong waves came early and sometimes happened during other months.

As the weather is uncertain and unpredictable, sometimes we cannot meet the needs of our guests. For example, on some days when we expect there will be no rain or strong current at certain diving spots, rain or strong current nevertheless occurs and lowers underwater visibility, making it difficult for guests to dive. Then, we have to choose other spots. As we cannot go according to our plans, we have to use more fuel to look for other locations where the visibility is good and the current is not too strong. This results in higher operational costs.

Abrupt change of weather

In addition, abrupt changes in weather also increase risks for us and our guests. This happens at times when the weather is good at the beginning of the dive, but suddenly gets worse when we are still underwater, or just about to get back on board.

Fortunately, so far there has been no significant loss for us. But, if the weather keeps changing abruptly, and is uncertain and unpredictable, there will be significant negative impacts on underwater tourism.

Scientific review

Reviewed by: Dr Heru Santoso, TroFCCA (Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation) project, Indonesia

The witnesses told three natural phenomena that they considered climate related. They are increased land erosion, higher tides and unpredictable weather. Even though non-climatic factor could contribute to these phenomena, for example an increase in land erosion could be due to land mismanagement, or a higher tide could be the subsequent of regional subsidence, etc. However, in all three different locations the people observed an increase of wave energy and increasing unpredictable weather that could affect the sustainability of their villages and their livelihood.

There are very few scientific literatures to report whether the observed phenomena in this specific region are related to climate change. This region is open to Sulawesi and Sulu seas as flow paths of oceanic current from the western Pacific Ocean to Indian Ocean. Higher tides in Berau area could be related to the increase of sea surface level in the western Pacific during La Niña events. This phenomenon recently has become noticeable than in the past probably because global warming has accentuated the extent of this climate mechanism (Mimura et al. 2007).

For the same reason, unpredictable and abrupt change of weather has become noticeable. Abrupt changes are usually associated with high wind speed which could only happen if there is a significant difference in pressures between two areas. Striking heat, in particular over a heat sensitive land area, under a warmer condition could generate this high pressure difference quickly. Land sensitivity to heat is higher if the forest cover has gone or heavily degraded. The 'widow month', a regular phenomenon of strong southerly wind that has been disappearing, is normally associated with the monsoonal trade wind in which the easterly wind from eastern Indonesia turn northward to Asia. Global warming or higher regional temperature could alter the distribution of regional or subregional energy concentration and could also alter the scale and extent of circulation.

Therefore, global warming could have contributed to the increasing trend of recurrences of natural phenomena as reported by witnesses. However, it is quite proper to verify whether this global warming has accentuated climate mechanisms in this subregion by comparing with other climate variables. For example, during La Niña events warm waters from the east flow to the west and usually bringing more rains. The high tides in the Berau region which could be explained by this mechanism could be verified with rainfall data during that particular time of the events, preferably with a long period of observation data.
All articles are subject to scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel.

Climate Witness: Pak Azhar, Indonesia

2010-06-01

My name is Azhar, 32, from Balikukup island, Berau, East Kalimantan, Indonesia. The weather is increasingly uncertain and unpredictable. I do not understand the causes, but clearly, the condition is bringing changes to my life as a sea cucumber fisherman.

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I have been living in Balikukup since 1999. Balikukup is a small island of 18 ha consisting mainly of sandbanks. However, the island's size is not fixed as it depends on the tides. During low tide, a large sandbank is exposed, extending 1 km towards the sea.

The weather is a significant factor in the work of a sea cucumber fisherman

I started collecting sea cucumbers in 2001. There are 2 ways to catch sea cucumbers; some fishermen just search on the beaches around the island during low tide at night, while others dive underwater, down to depths of 10 m.

Sea cucumber fishermen are highly dependent on the weather to do their job. Fishermen cannot catch good harvests during rainy or stormy weather, as sea cucumbers hide underneath the sand during that time. Therefore, it is important for a sea cucumber fisherman to predict what the weather will be like before going to work.

Unpredictable weather

Usually I observe the weather at dusk or in the early evening to predict whether it is going to rain or be stormy at night. But nowadays, it is getting harder to predict the weather accurately. For example, early evening yesterday I predicted that there would be no rain at night, but around midnight and early morning heavy rain came down.

In the old days, we fishermen could predict the weather. But not anymore. The elders on our island also mentioned the same thing. Since 2002, Atang, one of the fisherman elders whom we regard as the best expert in predicting the weather in Balikukup, said that the weather was getting unpredictable. Before, Atang could produce a very good prediction, even for the course of a full year.

'Bulan janda' or Widow month

One example of unpredictable weather is the gone phenomena of 'bulan janda', or 'widow month'. It is called widow-month because when the fishermen went to the sea during the event, they rarely came home safely. Thus, their wives became widows. Widow month is an annual event when the wind blows very strongly for 44 days from the south. This wind stops for a short period of time (half an hour), and then goes back to blowing very hard. During that time it is impossible for fishermen to go at sea.

Fishermen who had saved enough money and food supply did not need to go at sea during 'widow month' because the conditions were too dangerous. However, other fishermen had no other option but to go to sea during the event.

The phenomenon of 'widow month' does not exist anymore. The last time it happened was in 1991 according to fishermen. After 1991, during the supposedly 'widow-month', there could be calm periods for up to 2 weeks. None of the fishermen understands why the 'widow month' phenomenon has slowly disappeared.

No clue when money will come

The unpredictable weather is a disadvantage for us fishermen because we no longer know when we can go fishing. It is difficult for us to predict when we will make money. Before, we could estimate when was the right time to make income and put some money on the side, as we could predict when we can go fishing. Now, whenever we have good weather, we just go fishing. We can no longer make financial plans.

Credit: WWF-Indonesia / Primayunta

Scientific review

Reviewed by: Dr Heru Santoso, Project Coordinator of the TroFCCA (Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation) project, Indonesia

The witnesses told three natural phenomena that they considered climate related. They are increased land erosion, higher tides and unpredictable weather. Even though non-climatic factor could contribute to these phenomena, for example an increase in land erosion could be due to land mismanagement, or a higher tide could be the subsequent of regional subsidence, etc. However, in all three different locations the people observed an increase of wave energy and increasing unpredictable weather that could affect the sustainability of their villages and their livelihood.

There are very few scientific literatures to report whether the observed phenomena in this specific region are related to climate change. This region is open to Sulawesi and Sulu seas as flow paths of oceanic current from the western Pacific Ocean to Indian Ocean. Higher tides in Berau area could be related to the increase of sea surface level in the western Pacific during La Niña events. This phenomenon recently has become noticeable than in the past probably because global warming has accentuated the extent of this climate mechanism (Mimura et al. 2007).

For the same reason, unpredictable and abrupt change of weather has become noticeable. Abrupt changes are usually associated with high wind speed which could only happen if there is a significant difference in pressures between two areas. Striking heat, in particular over a heat sensitive land area, under a warmer condition could generate this high pressure difference quickly. Land sensitivity to heat is higher if the forest cover has gone or heavily degraded. The 'widow month', a regular phenomenon of strong southerly wind that has been disappearing, is normally associated with the monsoonal trade wind in which the easterly wind from eastern Indonesia turn northward to Asia. Global warming or higher regional temperature could alter the distribution of regional or subregional energy concentration and could also alter the scale and extent of circulation.

Therefore, global warming could have contributed to the increasing trend of recurrences of natural phenomena as reported by witnesses. However, it is quite proper to verify whether this global warming has accentuated climate mechanisms in this subregion by comparing with other climate variables. For example, during La Niña events warm waters from the east flow to the west and usually bringing more rains. The high tides in the Berau region which could be explained by this mechanism could be verified with rainfall data during that particular time of the events, preferably with a long period of observation data.

All articles are subject to scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel.

Climate Witness Update: Apa Sherpa

2010-05-31

Kathmandu, Nepal – WWF Climate Ambassador and world-record holding mountaineer Apa Sherpa took his climate crusade to the top of the world yet again by unfurling a Climate Change message as he reached the Everest summit for a record 20th time this morning at 8:34 am local time.

The banner carried by Apa Sherpa read "YOU HEARD OUR VOICE, NOW RAISE YOURS – WE CAN STOP CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE HIMALAYAS". Last year, during his 19th Everest ascent, Apa had carried another banner to the Summit warning the world of the dangerous impacts of Climate Change in the Himalayas. Following that event, Apa, who is also the SAARC Goodwill Ambassador for Climate Change, and fellow Climate Ambassador Dawa Steven Sherpa were actively engaged in the WWF-led Climate for Life Campaign, which led to the Himalayas getting significant attention in the Global Climate Debate

"In 2009, the world gave us massive support when we were involved with Climate for Life with WWF and we are thankful for that support and encouragement; however after Copenhagen, we have felt there is an even greater need to take action against Climate Change now. The fight must continue," said Dawa Steven Sherpa, from the Everest Base Camp.

Apa carried the Banner during the Eco Everest Expedition, which is led by Dawa Steven Sherpa, a two-time Everest Summiteer.

The event is a part of WWF's Climate for Life Campaign which extensively raised the issue of the impacts of Climate Change in the Himalayas in the run upto Copenhagen COP 15 Summit. The Campaign managed to reach out to a large mass of people in Nepal and beyond with a compelling voice for global action with powerful events - such as having Rt. Hon. Prime Minister of Nepal present rocks from the Everest Summit to US President Barack Obama and UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

"The admirable efforts of Ambassadors like Apa Sherpa truly help in highlighting the human face of the impacts of Climate Change. Such strong voices from vulnerable communities have gone a long way in helping WWF take these messages to the world leaders in a powerful way," said Tom Dillon, Senior Vice-President, WWF-US.

Read Apa Sherpa's original Climate Witness testimony here.

Climate Witness: Trisha Kehaulani Watson, USA

2010-05-24

My name is Trisha Kehaulani Watson. I was born and raised in the valley of Manoa, in the ahupua`a of Waikiki, in the district of Kona (known today as Honolulu), on the island of O`ahu. I am Native Hawaiian and a lineal descendant of the high chief Kakuhihewa, for whom the island of O`ahu is named (O`ahu-a-Kakuhihewa). I also have a JD and specialized in environmental law. I also have a PhD, which is specialized in indigenous epistemologies and traditional natural resource management.

These observations have been made over the course of my lifetime and in concert with conversations from my family and kupuna (elders).

Over my lifetime, I have seen radical shifts in my ahupua`a (land division). The beaches I played on my entire life have steadily eroded away. In many places, there is no more sand and coastline is eroding.

My valley has always been very waiwai (wealthy, rainy, with much fresh running water), yet the waters have changed. We have far more unstable weather. My grandfather used to take me down to the streams as a little girl to watch the water rise when the heavy rains came, things are much different today. The heavy rains are devastating. In October 2004, we had a devastating flood wash through the valley. My street has been shut down numerous times by civil defense due to dangerous flooding conditions.

The seasons have also changed. It gets much colder than it used to, and also much hotter. The plants have changed because of it. Fruits come at unusual times of the year, sometimes impacting cultural practices. Flowers bloom at different times of the year as well. Health problems can also result from these weather changes.

The Earth is not well. We have known this for many years. It is frustrating now to watch the world wake up to the reality so late in the game. We have been telling the world this.

I only hope now that people finally start to listen.

Scientific review

A scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel is pending.

Climate Witness: Masayuki Kurechi, Japan

2010-04-30

In the autumn, Greater White-fronted Goose, a large waterfowl, comes to visit waterfront areas in Japan. Since becoming fascinated by this species in his university years, Masayuki Kurechi, a member of the Japanese Association for Wild Geese Protection, has continued to make observations of Greater White-fronted Geese for over four decades. He has lived near Izu-numa marsh in Miyagi prefecture, the largest stopover site for geese in Japan, watching over their life. He points out that the number of geese visiting the area around Izu-numa is increasing year by year, and that the period of their wintering is gradually becoming shorter. He is concerned over the possibility that global warming is having a major effect on the ecology of the geese.

English | 日本語

Soon, I will have been living in Miyagi prefecture for four decades. While running a private tutoring school, I have observed the life of Greater White-fronted Geese that spend the winter in various places in northern Miyagi, including Izu-numa.

Izu-numa, a wetland with a rich natural environment, is registered under the Ramsar Convention. Many Greater White-fronted Geese spend the winter there. However, since 1990, their numbers have rapidly increased, and overconcentration has emerged as a problem.

Moreover, various changes can be observed in the behavior pattern of the geese. I am concerned that their breeding grounds may be lost before too long if global warming continues unabated.

Greater White-fronted Geese are Sensitive to Environmental Changes

I was born and raised in Hiratsuka, Kanagawa prefecture. I never saw any greater white-fronted geese there. After entering university in Sendai, the capital city of Miyagi prefecture, I visited Izu-numa with a map in hand. This was my first encounter with the geese.

It was winter, in a rice field, when I saw them for the first time.

A flock of about 1,000 birds were picking at fallen ears of rice. When I took a step toward them, they all looked up at once in alarm, and after another step, the flock took wing, filling the entire sky. I was very surprised that so many large birds were living in the wild, and was completely captivated by their powerful wild presence.

Greater White-fronted Geese are very cautious birds. They are also extremely sensitive to environmental changes.

Since they cannot survive without a rich natural environment, they leave a place when they feel uncomfortable, never to return.

They once ranged across Japan, but their habitat has rapidly shrunk due to development following World War II. Conversely, we can determine what kind of problems the environment has at present by watching the behavior of the geese. This is the kind of bird they are.

The Timing of Their Arrival is Changing

Greater White-fronted Goose, a waterfowl, cannot survive if the marshes where they roost at night are completely covered by snow or ice. The summer is short in their breeding grounds near the Arctic Circle, and snow begins to fall late in August. Thus, when this season comes the geese fly south to places that remain unfrozen.

After departing from Lake Pekulneyskoye in Russia, they fly southward, passing over the Kamchatka Peninsula, Hokkaido and Akita prefecture, finally arriving at their destination, their wintering spots of Izu-numa. Their flight takes them 4,000 km. In October, the flocks begin to arrive in the area around Izu-numa, and their numbers gradually increase.

However, in recent years they have begun to arrive later and later. Also, while they used to leave the area and head north around February or March as spring approached, they are beginning to leave earlier. In other words, they spend less time in the area around Izu-numa than they used to.

Further, a phenomenon of "stopping points" becoming "wintering spots" has been observed.

In the past, Otomo-numa in Akita prefecture was only a "stopping point" where the geese headed for Izu-numa would stop during their migration. However, in recent years, some of those geese can be observed spending the winter at that marsh, without moving further south.

Greater White-fronted Goose can only survive in places where the average temperature during midwinter is above freezing, since the marshes freeze over when the average temperature drops below zero.

The average temperature of Otomo-numa used to be below freezing during the midwinter. However, according to data from recent years, it has exceeded zero degrees.

The lighter snowfall and availability of unfrozen marshes have significantly changed the behavior of the geese.

The geese, which were once only seen in autumn and spring, now continue to stay through the winter. This phenomenon can be seen not only in Akita but also in Hokkaido and other places as well.

The Concentration of Greater White-fronted Geese in a Single Place

When I saw the geese for the first time, there were around 5,000 birds around Izu-numa. The Japanese government designated them as a protected species in 1971. Hunting was prohibited and protection was started. Since then, their numbers have gradually increased. Their numbers have grown rapidly since 1990, and in 2010, more than 100,000 geese spent the winter in the northern part of Miyagi prefecture, in places such as Izu-numa, Kabukuri-numa and other marshes.

This explosive increase in their numbers seems to go far beyond the level that could be expected from protection. In my opinion, one reason is the effect of global warming on the breeding areas.

Greater White-fronted Geese breed and nest in tundra areas near the Arctic Circle. They breed on the ground in marshes where the rivers and swamps create a complicated landscape.

If the early spring thaw begins earlier than usual due to the effects of global warming, the geese can make more nests, and thus more goslings are born.

Also, since geese are herbivorous, an earlier thaw helps the goslings grow by increasing the amount of grass that they can feed on.

In this way, the rise in air temperature seems to lead to an increase in the population, resulting in larger numbers of the geese migrating to the area around Izu-numa.

However, the rapid increase in their population brings about problems of its own.

One is a problem facing the birds themselves. Despite the increase in their population, the places suitable for overwintering are limited, and they can become over-concentrated in few habitats.

Also, if water contamination occurs in a marsh such as Izu-numa or Kabukuri-numa where the birds are concentrated, they can be wiped out overnight. Infectious diseases occurring among densely packed birds also pose a serious risk.

Another problem is the relationship between the birds and human beings.

During the daytime, the geese feed on foods in arable lands such as rice paddies. But if too many birds flock in a single place, the damage to agriculture may become a big problem.

Although some cities in the northern part of Miyagi prefecture have established ordinances that provide compensation for damage to agriculture caused by geese, ducks and swans, an excessive concentration of birds will threaten their symbiosis with human beings.

To deal with this situation, a project to encourage the flooding of rice paddies during the winter is being carried out with the help of farmers around Kabukuri-numa. This project seeks to create symbiosis between human beings and Greater White-fronted Geese, and to promote decentralization, by flooding rice fields after the harvest, thereby creating an environment similar to marshes. Local people began to see the paddy fields that the geese use as valuable sites with rich biodiversity, and this consciousness is spreading.

Greater White-fronted Geese as Harbingers of Environmental Crisis

At a glance, the influence of the global warming may appear to be desirable since the population of the geese is growing.

However, it is projected that the tundra breeding areas of the geese that migrate to Japan will be significantly affected by the influence of global warming. It is said that tundra will rapidly becomes wooded if global warming continues (the permafrost will melt and trees will be able to spread their roots).

If this happens, the geese will lose their breeding grounds, and as a result, the flocks will dwindle or disappear from the local area.

I believe it is important to halt current warming as soon as possible in order to protect the future of the geese.

Incidentally, the Chinese character for goose, "雁" depicts a "human" ("イ") and "bird" ("隹") living together in "a house" ("厂"). This signifies that geese, which care for their families, are a friendly species for human beings and are deeply involved in the lives of people.

Though it is very difficult to visually confirm the phenomenon of global warming, I think it is important to be conscious about this problem and to grasp it by coexisting with the geese, which are very sensitive to changes in the environment.

Global warming is an issue that we human beings created. I believe that we need to recognize it as everyone's problem and take necessary actions.

Scientific Basis

According to Summary for Policymakers of the Contribution of Working Group II(WG II) to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) (2007), recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and the earlier timing of spring events, such as bird migration and egg-laying, as well as pole-ward and upward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species have been observed in the Northern Hemisphere. Phenomena such as the transformation of stopover points into wintering sites and the earlier timing of migration from wintering spots to the north in the spring that has been observed since the 1990s among Greater White-fronted Geese (Anser albifrons) spending the winter in the area around Izu-numa coincide with these description by the IPCC. Moreover, some papers have reported geese spending the winter in Otomo-numa, a former stopover point in Akita prefecture (1) and that in January 2007, due to the warm winter, the flocks left the northern part of Miyagi prefecture where they spent the winter and moved northward to Otomo-numa earlier than usual (2).

At this point, it is not clear whether the rapid increase since the 1990s in the population of geese wintering in the area around Izu-numa is an effect of the warming in the breeding areas in Russia (increased reproduction rate). However, data on air temperature collected by polar meteorological stations in northeast Russia between 1933 and 2000 show that the air temperature in the breeding areas has been rising (3). Chapter 15 "Polar regions 15.2.1" in IPCC AR4 WG II states that "surface air temperatures in the Arctic have warmed at approximately twice the global rate for several decades." Further, there have been observations of reductions in the duration of river and lake ice, warming of permafrost and changes in vegetation (a transition from grasses to shrubs), showing that the effect of the global warming is already manifesting itself in the Arctic region.

As stated by Mr. Kurechi, we need to direct our attention to the changes not only of the wintering sites and stopover points, but also in the breeding areas when considering the effect of global warming to migratory birds such as Greater White-fronted Geese. After all, migratory birds, which fly back and forth among breeding areas, stopover points and wintering sites, are significantly affected by their entire habitat environment. Box 4.5 in Chapter 4 in IPCC AR4 WG II states that "Migratory species can be affected by climate change in their breeding, wintering and/or critical stopover habitats" and that "Models project changes in the future ranges of many species." For example, it is predicted that a rise of two degrees Celsius in the air temperature of the earth will cause a decrease in the breeding area of many waterfowls that breed in the Arctic region, such as snipes, plovers and ducks, by 45% and 50% at the maximum (4).

According to the projected vegetation map for the Arctic region in IPCC AR4 (5), Russian tundra, which constitutes the breeding area for the geese, will be transformed to boreal forest in the period between 2090 and 2100, leading to the possibility that this breeding area will be destroyed or disappear. Although the number of Greater White-fronted Geese wintering in Japan is rapidly increasing today, we need to watch over the actions and behaviors of migratory birds, including geese, and try to minimize the effect of global warming.

(1) Shimada T., Hatakeyama S., Miyabayashi Y., and Kurechi M., 2005: Effects of climatic conditions on the northward expansion of the wintering range of the Greater-fronted Goose in Japan, Ornithological Science, 4, 155-159
(2) Shimada T, 2009: Current status and distribution of Greater White-fronted Goose in Japan, Short Communication, Ornithological Science, 8, 163-167
(3) The Japanese Association for Wild Geese Protection, The Research on the Effect of the Global Warming on Migratory Geese, Achievement Report on JFGE Granted Project in 2002, 2003
(4) Folkestad, T., M. New, J.O. Kaplan, J.C. Comiso, S. Watt-Cloutier, T. Fenge, P. Crowley and L.D. Rosentrater, 2005: Evidence and implications of dangerous climate change in the Arctic. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, H.J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T.M.L. Wigley and G. Yohe, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 215-218.
(5) Figure 15.3 in Chapter 15 "Polar regions" of the Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 659.

* For details of Mr. Kurechi's account, please refer to pp. 131-148 of Ondanka no seibutsu tayosei (Biodiversity and the Global Warming) (Kunio Iwatsuki and Akiko Domoto eds., Tokyo: Tsukiji Shokan, 2008) [Japanese] or Ganyo watare (Migrate, Geese) (Masayuki Kurechi, Tokyo: Doubutsu Sha, 2006) [Japanese].

All articles are subject to scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel.

Climate Witness: Emile Jean, Madagascar

2010-04-14

My name is Emile Jean and I live in Tsiandriona Nord. My village belongs to the rural community of Itampolo in the very South of Madagascar. I am 53 years old and married according to our traditions. We have 11 kids, 6 boys and 5 girls. They are between 6 and 35 years old. We live in 3 one-room houses. A sleeping house, a kitchen and a house to stock our yield.

I am from the Mahafaly tribe and the Temitongia clan. My village is between the forest of the lower Plateau Mahafaly and the ocean. I am a farmer like my father and his father before him, but there are some fishermen in our village too. I plant maize and vegetables. Half of what we grow is for our own needs, the rest we sell. Like every Mahafaly I have a couple of zebus.

For some years now, we have been losing a part of our manioc yield because the rain comes too late. We also have more insects these days.

We used to plant in the dry season also. This helped to overcome the lack of food between the rainy seasons. Now this is not possible any more, we just lose seeds if we do it... It used to rain a lot in January. Now there is no rain at all in this month.

When my grandfather was young, they didn't have more than one or two bad years in 20 years. When my father was young, they had a bad year every 7 years. Now, it's every two years. We even risk having the second bad year in a row. 2010 could be the worst ever – we are very worried.

The price for cattle is very low, while the prices for other products have doubled. Because of this, I now drink rohondroho in the morning instead of coffee. It is like coffee but stronger.

We used to water the animals in little natural ponds. Nowadays they are dry for 9 to 11 months. When I was young, they had water for 6 months. Thank God we have a pump in the village these days.

I don't know who or what is responsible for those changes. When we changed to community based forest management, we sacrificed a zebu to ask God for his protection. We would protect nature, the forest and the tortoises. It was like a contract and God helped us through difficult times. Maybe we have to do another sacrifice as the last one was already a while ago. Especially because some of us didn't respect the contract and have cleared some forest anyway. Maybe God is angry.

I am really scared that the drought continues. I am very scared of famine.

My kids all go to school. Education is what they inherit from me. I hope that they all become intellectuals, someone important, professionally speaking. Then they can take care of me, when I am old. They will remember that they got a job because I worked myself to death to educate them. I hope they will bury me in a big concrete gravesite when I am dead instead of a simple pile of stones.

Scientific review

A scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel is pending.

Climate Witness: Leonor Corral, Philippines

2010-04-06

My name is Leonor Corral. I am 50 years old and I am mayor to the people of a town called El Nido – Spanish for the nest – in the Philippine province of Palawan.

English | Français | Español
I have lived in El Nido most of my life and am a living testament to how the years have changed it. Before, we had a defined dry and wet season. Typhoons never reached our area. We always had fish and squid in abundance and boasted of a water system that reached all families – a year-round freshwater supply for rice fields and households.

The El Niño phenomenon that rocked the country in 1998 gave us our first experience of coral bleaching and its costly aftermath. We were very hard-hit because the fish yield has significantly decreased since then – and a lot of people have livelihoods that depend on the bounty of the sea. My brother used to fish in front of the town and as a family, we caught squid. Nowadays? You're lucky if you can come up with five or ten kilos.

Today, typhoons are common – even in the Calamianes islands up north. We bear the brunt of the heavy flooding and the soil erosion that comes with it. The coconut trees that once dotted our coastlines are no more and floods now reach the town. Freshwater is scarce now – it does not reach everyone. We are still trying to find a good water source. On top of all this, more and people are migrating to El Nido, further straining the resources.

In pursuit of a living planet

El Nido is guided by the vision of sustainable development. To combat the effects of climate change, we are enforcing strict environmental protection. Each town is required to declare their own watershed areas and marine sanctuaries. The fisheries code is being strongly enforced. We have set up alternative livelihood programs to help people cope with decreasing fish yields – seaweed culture, mariculture, crab fattening, organic hog-raising and even mangrove reforestation projects as alternatives to producing charcoal. We even have personnel dedicated to guarding the environment.

Climate change is affecting us right now. All our programmes will be useless if we don't protect the environment.

Scientific review

Reviewed by: Dr Rodel Lasco, Philippines Programme Coordinator, World Agroforestry Centre, ICRAF, Philippines

Leonor's observations on coral bleaching during El Nino years is consistent with glbal observations as a result of higher sea temperatures.

However her observation on increased typhoons is not supported by peer-reviewed literature and observations by the weather bureau (PAGASA). PAGASA records show that the number of typhoons throughout the Philippines has remained more or less the same. Then again, in central Philippines, a slight increase in number of typhoons has been recorded and this could be the case in Palawan. Still at this point, her observation could be accounted for by climate variability.

In the future, most climate models show an increasing trend in rainfall and extreme events. So Leonor's observations maybe a good indication of potential climate impacts in the area.
All articles are subject to scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel.

Climate Witness: Mario Roy Magayon, Philippines

2010-03-31

I am Mario Roy Magayon, 46 years old. I have lived in the fishing village of Sta. Lucia in Occidental Mindoro since 1987. I originally came from Oriental Mindoro but dwindling fish yields forced me to resettle – timely since Apo Reef was still open for fishing.

In 2004, the local climate still seemed fine, but things have changed. Older villagers say that like them, the climate has also grown older and more senile. This was how people coped, for no one explained climate change to us.

It's now getting harder to fish. The rains originally came in August. Now fishermen must prepare for rain as early as June because of low-pressure fronts which can rapidly develop into full-blown storms in just a few hours. In 2006 or 2007, fishing yields simply plummeted. Experienced fishers say that since the sea is becoming warmer, the tuna, trevally and mackerel stay in deeper waters, making them much harder to catch. In 2002 I established a volunteer group called SHARKS or Solidong Hanay para sa Apo Reef at Karagatan ng Sablayan (Unified Ranks for Apo Reef and Sablayan) to protect our waters from poachers.

In 2007 and 2008, Apo Reef saw a massive outbreak of Crown-of-Thorns starfish. When these starfish settle on a reef, many corals die. If Apo Reef still had a lot of predator species to eat the starfish, it would be fine. Sadly that's no longer the case, so we need human intervention to remove them. SHARKS went along in 2008 and helped collect over 5,000 starfish. We have done much to protect the sea from poachers and starfish but sadly, we cannot protect ourselves from the sea itself.

Homes at Risk

When I arrived in Sta. Lucia, the shoreline was much farther out, perhaps 15 meters away. If we look at pictures of my old house, you'll see I had two coconut trees up front. Now they're both gone, swept out to sea. Even my big Talisay or umbrella tree has been uprooted and destroyed.

Floods are now more common. Before, the breakwater would still be about a foot lower than our cement roads. Sometimes it is now on the same level. In another five or 10 years, the road will surely be submerged. Our homes are at risk. That's why today, we should think about solutions. Even if we don't completely stop it, there's a lot we can do to minimize the effects of climate change.

Scientific review

Reviewed by: Dr Rodel D. Lasco, Philippines Programme Coordinator, World Agroforestry Centre, ICRAF, Philippines

Mario's observations are somewhat consistent with peer-reviewed literature for the Philippines. Observations by the weather bureau (PAGASA) in the last 50 years show an increasing annual mean air temperature especially mean minimum temperature. There are no records of rising sea temperature but this is possible considering that air temperature has risen.

Mario's experience on early onset of rainy season maybe part of climate variability since there is no significant shift rainfall patterns. However, most climate models show an increasing trend of rainfall in the future. Flooding is consistent with this projection. In fact in central Philippines, there is an observed increase in extreme daily rainfall which could also be happening in Mindoro island.

ADB. 2009. The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review, Asian Development Bank (ADB)
Cruz, R. V. O., R. D. Lasco, J. M. Pulhin, F. B. Pulhin, and K. B. Garcia. 2006. Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in Pantabangan Watershed, Philippines. AIACC Final Technical Report 9-107. Available: www.aiaccproject.org/FinalReports/final_reports.html
Tibig, L. V. 2004. Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures and 24-hr Rainfall in the Philippines, Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch. Technical Report, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Quezon City.

All articles are subject to scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel.

Climate Witness: Monique Tombo, Madagascar

2010-03-16

My name is Monique Tombo and I am 35 years old. I am a fisherwoman and live in a wooden house in Ampasindava. My village is next to the sea, within the borders of the new marine National Park of Nosy Hara in northern Madagascar. My wooden house stands on stilts, because we don't like to sleep on the floor. I have 5 kids. Unfortunately, I have a bad eye. However, I have no money to do something about it.

My village has 365 inhabitants, as many as there are days in the year. Most of them are fishermen like me. There is a mangrove swamp behind the village, where we find crabs.

At low tide I go out to sea to collect octopus and sea cucumbers. Unfortunately, there are almost no sea cucumbers left. I could gather up to 50 kg in the old days, now it's between 10-20 kgs, at most. My father was a fisherman and even his father before him. I believe there was still more fish at the time. The wind was not as strong as today! Today, our husbands sometimes have to travel very far to fish, because the wind is too strong here. That costs a lot of money! The price for fish is low as always, while the price for rice is increasing steadily.

When my parents were my age, the sea level was not as high. Now it rises higher and higher up the coast and the beach becomes narrower.

The rainy season is getting shorter. In the old days, it started early in December and stopped in March Now it starts in January only and in February it's already finished! Unfortunately, that's not enough to plant a lot. We are cultivating some maize for our own use.

The only well that hasn't run dry yet is pretty far away. We try to collect the little rain we get. I'm pretty sure that all of these changes are due to bush fires. People always burn everything down! This cannot be a good thing!

I'm afraid that my children have to suffer even more. I fear that nature will be completely destroyed by the time they are grown up! The new National Park could be a chance for them, because at least they can find work. Yes, I think this park is an opportunity for us to find other sources of income.

We created a women's association and we want to build a few bungalows for tourists. The land has already been determined and we are ready. Unfortunately, we still lack the money to build the houses...

Life used to be a lot easier than it is today.

Scientific review

A scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel is pending.

Climate Witness: Pak Mat, Malaysia

2010-03-02

My name is Muhammad bin Mat Zin. I am 60 years old. I was born in Kemasek, a small fishing town in the state of Terengganu, Malaysia. I have lived here for all my life. I was a good student but I had to leave school after Standard 6 (12 years old) because my family was too poor to pay for my education. After leaving school, I became a fisherman. Now, I'm also a farmer.

I have 8 children; the youngest is 15 years old and is still in school. My wife is a full time housewife.

Rainfall in the past 3 to 4 years has been unpredictable, especially so in 2009. Before, the rainy season in Terengganu would be from October to December but now, you can never tell. The rain falls when it shouldn't, and when it should be the rainy season, it doesn't rain at all. This year the rain is more frequent (2 or 3 times per week). When the day is hot, it becomes really hot. There are no more cool days.

Storms are also occurring earlier than they should. Before, you expected to see big storms only in January, which was normal because of the monsoon season. This year, an especially big storm happened towards the end of October.

We used to be able to plan our outings to sea - we knew when to expect the monsoon rains. During that time, we did go out to sea and spent our time repairing our fishing nets instead. Now we cannot really predict the start of the monsoon. It makes it difficult for us to plan our activities. Our income is being affected. As a result, many of us have to find an alternative source of income, by working as construction labourers, cleaning fruit orchards and so forth.

Three years ago, I built a small brick house by the beach. The water's edge (high tide mark) was then about 70 feet from my house. Each year, the water's edge moved closer to where my house stood. One night in 2009, after a big storm, the sea water washed away the land on which my house was standing, and half of the structure eventually collapsed. My house was destroyed. My neighbour's house has also been damaged by the beach erosion. Soon all the other houses nearby are likely to suffer the same fate. I lost about RM5000 (USD 1,480) when my house was damaged.

I also noticed changes in the sea. The sea can be quite rough now. Waves are bigger. The sea is usually rough around November and December due to the Northeast Monsoon. But now the seas are rough as early as October. During the monsoon, the normally rough seas can be unusually calm as well. This year, in the middle of November, when the sea should be rough because of the monsoon, it is instead very calm, despite storms and heavy rain on land. I find this very strange. Like yesterday for example, the sea looked calm like it was in May.

I also noticed that the high tide is higher than normal, and the low tide is lower than normal. Really low tides usually occur early in the year around March and the later part of the year, around November and December. Now, I start to see really low tides as early as September.

When I go out to sea, I notice that many fish species I used to catch before can hardly be found anymore. For example, "ikan gelama" (jewfish) which used to be abundant, can hardly be found now. Other examples include "ikan kebasi" (chacunda shad) and "ikan bayan" (parrotfish).

The pattern of the sea currents have also changed. For example, in December we should be experiencing the northeast current which runs from November until April. But now it is still the southwest current that is flowing. Southwest currents should be from May to September. However in May this year, when it should be the southwest current, it was the northeast current. I think this "haywire" current has affected the fish catch as the currents no longer bring in the fish.

I have noticed that there are more and more raptors around these parts. They are common in February, March September and October and fly in flocks. This is a recent occurrence. There are also more hornbill sightings but I think this could be due to forest clearing. Several bird species are gone from the area as well. For example, what the locals call "burung perkok" is completely gone.

Scientific review

Reviewed by: Faizal Parish, Malaysia

The observations of Pak Mat for Terengannu are generally consistent with the predictions for changes in weather patterns and increased climate variability as a result of global climate change. The reduced intensity of the North east monsoon observed by Pak mat is linked to the documented steady rise in sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea over the past 90 years which directly reduced monsoon wind speed and intensity.

In contrast increased sea surface temperatures lead to an increased intensity of tropical typhoons in the pacific and south china sea in the period July-October. The severe storm in 2009 mentioned by Pak Mat may have been associated with the intense 2009 typhoon season which led to severe damage and loss of life in several countries around the south china sea.

Observations with less or no support in literature
The changes observed in currents may be linked to changes in weather patterns; the observed changes in fish populations could be linked to changes in currents or to fishing practices. There is no evidence of fundamental changes in tidal patterns – and extreme tides would normally be predicted to be in March and September associated with global spring tide peaks. Earlier observed ( by Pak Mat) high tides in November may have been associated with stronger monsoonal winds. Migration seasons of raptors in Malaysia have always been March-April and September-October. The recent observations by Pak mat of this event may be due to a local change in route relating to weather or land use changes.

Conclusion
Based on the information provided the information onn reduced intensity of the NE Monsoon and the increased variability of weather and increased storm frequency outside of monsoon season are consistent with the predicted and observed climate impacts in the region.

Yi Liua, , , Zicheng Penga, Tegu Chenb, Gangjian Weic, Weidong Sunc, Ruoyu Suna, Jianfeng Hea, Guijian Liua, Chen-Lin Choud and Robert E. Zartmane 2008. The decline of winter monsoon velocity in the South China Sea through the 20th century: Evidence from the Sr/Ca records in corals. Global and Planetary Change Volume 63, Issue 1, Pages 79-85

All articles are subject to scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel.

Climate Witness: Siwema Prosper, Tanzania

2010-02-02

My name is Siwema Prosper . I am 29 years old and I live in Kisiwani village in Mangula area of Morogoro in Tanzania.

I was born and brought up on my parents' farm. I inherited the farm from them and now work on the farm on with my husband and child. I have managed it for 5 years now. Apart from working in the farm, I produce and sell bananas, vegetable cassava and pawpaw fruits to small scale traders in Mangula centre and they sell as a far as Morogoro.

I have observed climate and weather changes in my village of Kisiwani for last five years now. My neighbors in the village and at the farm have equally noticed changes . I have kept record of these changes from the harvest I make from the farm and the loss I incur due to change of seasons.

From March, April and May we experience short rains instead of long rains, as is normal. Equally, in the months of October, November and December we witness long rains instead of short rains. The long rains come with flash floods that affect our farms, village and causes displacements.

The weather pattern has changed. We experience a cold spell that is accompanied by terrible cold and in some months like June and July we receive a warm weather. The level of water we used to irrigate our farms has reduced drastically and the small streams that use to feed us with water has changed it course. The rich vegetation along the streams that comes from Ruaha River to our village is no more. We don't see several birds that use to take water from the streams. I don't know whether they are dead or they have immigrated to Mikumi areas or Ruaha River.

The environment around our area has changed compared to four years ago. The area is getting dry and sometime we experience droughts whereby the vegetation gets dry, trees shedding its leaves and wild animals straying into our villages in search of water and pastures.

I feel the main consequences of climate change in my area are due to human activities in the forest and the water catchment areas. I also feel that the practice of burning chunks of land for farming has had an effect. The changes in local climate is changing the seasons and rains patterns, resulting in weather changes whereby we get more cold spells and warm weather than before.

It has changed the way I live because now I expect flash floods that will displace us from our homes. We have also incurred a lot of expense in buying malaria drugs during the warm seasons as we see increase in mosquitoes unlike before. The human / wildlife conflict has also increased drastically as monkeys and rabbits attack our drying farms and village in search of water and pastures. The climate change has made me harvest water in big tanks and sand dams in my farm. I use it for domestic purposes and small scale irrigation around my compound.

In my opinion the government should protect the water catchment areas, rivers and forest and they should pass law that outlaws farming around the forests and water towers. They should also educate the communities on climate changes as we lack enough knowledge on the changes now. They should involve us in conservation and planting of trees in our areas and in the forests. Currently the government is doing nothing in assisting us to adapt to the changes. We need more.

Scientific review

A scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel is pending.

Climate Witness: Be Mangaoka, Madagascar

2009-12-20

My name is Be Mangaoka and I am 50 years old. I live in the small village of Ankingameloka in the very north of Madagascar. Our village is right next to the Nosy Hara Marine Protected Area. There is no electricity and running water in our village. There is no school or health centre either.

I am a fisherman and a farmer. I collect fish and sea cucumbers and sell them to businessmen in Mangoaka. I plant rice and manioc for my family's needs and maize for selling as well.

I have four children. They will have to find another source of income, so I encourage them to study. I hope that they will do well in their studies so they can help us later.

In 1984, there was a cyclone called Kamisy that caused a lot of damage on the coastline. We had to move the village inland, 100 meters away from where it originally was! The cyclone destroyed our mangrove forests. For two years now we haven't found any shrimp in the remaining mangroves. In the old days, we used to collect 10kg of crab, now we can only gather 3kg a day at most. Due to the sediments in the mangroves it is difficult for them to regenerate.

From 1999 to 2000 a severe drought passed through our village and we had problems cultivating the rice. Unfortunately, this was not a one-time occurrence; the seasons have really changed a lot. For the last 20 years, there has been less and less rain. Normally the rainy season is from November until May, but nowadays it is only from January until March. Rice cultivation is particularly affected by this shortage. We have to find other varieties. Some of our wells have run dry.

The varatraza - the main wind in northern Madagascar - used to blow from July to August. Now we get it from April to November. When the varatraza blows, we can't fish! Our income is less and less. At the same time, the number of fishermen has increased over the last couple of years, especially fishermen from other places who do not respect our rules.

Also, we have to walk very far to find fire wood due to the overexploitation of wood and bush fires. To find wood for construction, we have to walk many kilometres.

I don't know, who or what is responsible for all those changes but I am really worried that our future generation will not have access any more to the natural resources we rely upon.

Scientific review

A scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel is pending.

When life was good: A climate witness account from the Maasai in Tanzania

2009-12-13

Longido, Tanzania – Life used to be good, according to Kariungi Leng'ese, a Maasai elder in northern Tanzania.

"When I was young, we never had droughts like this. Life was good," he said. "Nowadays, things are really tough. It never rains enough now."

Cattle are the main source of food and wealth for the Maasai, who led semi-nomadic lives in East Africa for hundreds of years. But with rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall, the Maasai's traditional ways of life and coping strategies are proving insufficient in the face of climate change.

In September this year, Kariungi says he lost 150 of his 450 cows. He then sent the remaining herd away to an area known to be good for grazing, but this area is also degraded now due to the prolonged drought. The only places where grass can still be found is in the national parks, where it is forbidden for livestock to enter. However, faced with the shame of returning home without any cattle, many Maasai try to enter these parks, even for just a few hours, so their cattle can feed.

Such situations are creating new conflicts - not only between the Maasai and the park guards, who must enforce the law, but also between the Maasai and the park's lions, who attach the weak cattle. As a result, dozens of lions have been killed near one park alone.

"If all the cattle die, we will be devastated. We will not be able to feed our children," said Jacqueiline Nampana, a Maasai women from the Erworendeke Village. "If the drought continues, we will not be able to clothe our children. We can't afford to send them to school."

In Maasai culture, the cattle are an important source of food, clothing and income, as well as a status of wealth. "If they die, we all die. The Maasai community dies. Our lives will be finished," Jacqueiline said.

Situations like this are being played out across drought-affected East Africa. There have always been periodic droughts in this part of Tanzania, but the climate is now getting hotter and drier. Data from the Tanzanian Meteorological Agency (TMA) indicates that over the past 50 years, the annual temperature in the northern Tanzania town of Arusha has risen by more than 1 degree Celsius and the rainfall has declined by over 25 per cent.

These climatic changes are having a dramatic impact on people's lives. In the case of the Maasai, traditional coping strategies are no longer effective and it is resulting in additional threats, such as resource-use conflict around the national parks.

This story is one of eight short videos produced by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and WWF Tanzania, in cooperation with the United Republic of Tanzania's Office of the Vice President. The videos feature first-hand accounts from Tanzanians already feeling the impacts of climate change is their daily lives. These testimonials are intended to spur the climate change negotiators in Copenhagen to agree a global deal on climate.

Climate Witness: Timothy Laurent, Tanzania

2009-12-10

My name is Timothy Laurent . I am 58 years old and I live in Mgudeni Village in the Mangula area of Morogoro, Tanzania.

I am a small scale farmer and I produce and sell bananas, vegetablse and pawpaw fruits. I inherited the rice, vegetable and banana farm from my parents, and I now work the farm with my wife and 10 children.

I was born and brought up at my parent's farm and have managed it for 20 years now. Apart from working in the farm, I also sell rice, vegetables, and bananas to small scale traders in Mangula centre, where they sell as a far as Morogoro.

I have noticed changes in my area over the last twenty years. The farming communities in Mgudeni Village have noticed the change of weather and it's a common subject we discuss regularly. We have kept records with the loss we have incurred in our farms and villages.

We have noticed a change in rain. We use to receive long rains from March, April and May but now during those times we receive short rains. The traditional short rain period of October, November and December has now changed to long rains. The long rains sweep our farms and drives wild animals into our villages. Stagnated water as a result of the long rains causes diseases like bilharzias, malaria and pneumonia. Their are also now cold spells that comes with diseases like malaria and pneumonia.

The rice paddy is also affected due to lack of water we use to get from seasonal rivers that comes from Mangula and goes to Mikumi area. The rice paddy is now dry and we have not planted any rice. When we get rain the water in the paddy changes color, becoming green so that we cannot plant any rice. My village was green with vegetation in past years but it's now dry. The little vegetation left has dried and in other areas you can see a big space with no vegetation at all.

The warmer weather in my area means that dries water and vegetation dry very fast.
The warm weather has also hampered small scale irrigations in the village, as it dries the water we have harvested through evaporation. Combined with the lack of water from seasonal rivers, this means we miss water for several months. Even when it flows the water capacity is less.

There is big change in local environment as people live in the village in fear of floods and displacements. The communities in the village have lost their makeshift houses to flooding due to change of rains seasons. The flooding has caused several deaths in my area. We have lost vegetation and we cannot get firewood and building materials from the vegetation.

With the rice paddy drying up, I have tried to adapt to changes by poaching wild animals and it has assisted my families and me. We as community in Mgudeni village have built a community dam where we store water. I have also dug a small well in my farm where we get water for domestic consumption but we cannot use it for irrigation as the water from well is shallow.

I urge the government to move fast and address the climate change problem instead of keeping quite. It's a big disaster and it has caused lives in my village. They should educate us on what is going on and assist us adapting to the changes. They should provide us with tree seedlings so that we can plant trees and get rain in time without changes.

Scientific review

A scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel is pending.

People's Orb on its way to Copenhagen

2009-12-04

Sydney, Australia: A message for world leaders on the urgency for decisive action on climate changte is on its way to Copenhagen - in the form of The People's Orb - a shimmering 20cm silver sphere containing a 350 gigabyte mosaic of stories, voices, images and action on climate change collected from around the world .

An initiative of WWF's Earth Hour that has been embraced by all major community climate campaigns, the orb was unveiled in Sydney by the first joint honorary custodians, Sydney Lord Mayor, Clover Moore MP and 14 year old "Climate Girl" Parrys Raines

The People's Orb is to be presented to a representative of world leaders during a dedicated Earth Hour Copenhagen when the lights of the city will be turned off for one hour from 7pm on Wednesday 16 December - a highly timely reminder of Earth Hour earlier this year when hundreds of millions globally demonstrated their wish for a fair, ambitious and binding agreement on climate change to emerge from the crucial Copenhagen summit which kicks off Monday.

During its journey, The Orb will be entrusted to a sequence of honorary custodians, including Professor Tim Flannery, WWF International Director General, Mr Jim Leape and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Executive Director, Mr Achim Steiner..

The Orb will arrive in the city on Saturday 5 December via The Climate Express - a train which left the previous treaty deal city of Kyoto, Japan, last month.

Earth Hour Executive Director, Andy Ridley, says that the huge numbers of people who took part in Earth Hour 2009 – when hundreds of millions of people in over 4000 cities and towns in 88 countries throughout the world voted for Earth over global warming by turning off their lights - is evidence that the planet's population is calling for definitive action on climate change.

"The People's Orb represents the spirit of collaboration across the globe. It gives the world's citizens a voice to make a difference in the global battle against climate change," Ridley says.

The People's Orb will retain sufficient memory for world leaders to include the final piece - a binding agreement for the future of the planet.

Campaigns supporting the orb include Vote Earth, tcktcktck, 350.org, Seal the Deal, Raise Your Voice, Hopenhagen, the Copenhagen Climate Council and the Earth Journalism Awards.

A global appeal for suggestions of material to be included in The People's Orb has sparked conversation across the world. Social media networks facebook and twitter are already a buzz with suggestions and comments from the planets citizens.

Michael Jackson's Earth Song has been the number one suggestion via online forums. Further suggestions being suggested on blogs, twitter and facebook, inspirational quotes from throughout the ages ( "We do not inherit the world from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children") and a copy of The Girl Who Silenced The World For 5 Minutes (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQmz6Rbpnu0).

Along with suggestions from individuals, The People's Orb will also contain key climate change reports from the world's most eminent scientists; representation from the world's great thinkers on the need for action on climate change and representation from the leaders of the world's cities calling for action on climate change.

Suggestions for what should be included in The People's Orb are being collected via Twitter (www.twitter/earthhour), Facebook (www.facebook.com/earthhour) and the Earth Hour blog - earthhourblog.posterous.com.

Notes to Editors

Businesses, community groups and individuals are encouraged to host a Vote Earth ballot box on their website. For more information, go to http://www.earthhour.org/HowCanIShowSupport.aspx.

About Earth Hour's Vote Earth
Earth Hour's Vote Earth campaign builds on the call for action on climate change provided by millions of people, companies and communities during Earth Hour. The campaign aims to provide a platform for the people of the world to deliver world leaders a mandate for the right decision to be made at the United Nations Climate Summit in Copenhagen in December 2009. Find out more about the campaign at www.earthhour.org Earth Hour's Vote Earth is organised by WWF.

About WWF
WWF is one of the world's largest and most respected independent conservation organizations, with almost 5 million supporters and a global network active in over 100 countries. WWF's mission is to stop the degradation of the earth's natural environment and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature, by conserving the world's biological diversity, ensuring that the use of renewable natural resources is sustainable, and promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful consumption.

For more information:
Kirsten Hodgon
Earth Hour Global
M: +61 (0) 424 507 095
E: Khodgon@wwf.org.au

It always used to rain at Christmas

2009-11-27

Viterbo, Italy - In Kericho, Kenya, Christmas always used to be celebrated in heavy rain.
"Today, Christmas is usually dry," said Mrs Nelly Damaris Chepkoskei, a 53 year old farmer who works extensively with the women of her community.

With 10 days to go to the opening of the Copenhagen climate summit, Chepkoskei is one of 10 climate witnesses now in Viterbo, Italy for a Greenaccord event to enable journalists to share information and learn from experts about climate change.

WWF's climate witness programme has supported people from diverse communities in many countries to tell the world of the growing impacts of climate change on their lives.

"I have witnessed many changes myself and what is disturbing us most are changes to the weather," said Chepkoskei.

"Rainfall patterns have changed drastically in the last decades. Here in the Kericho District we used to have rainfall throughout the year. I remember clearly that my family celebrated Christmas when it was raining heavily, but this has changed completely."

Many of the climate witnesses now telling their stories at Viterbo are travelling on to Copenhagen, hoping to dramatise to negotiators and Heads of State the human costs of not concluding a binding legal agreement to limit emissions and assist developing nations in particular adapt to climate change impacts.

"This place was really beautiful, when I was young," said 67 year old herder Mrs Marush Narankhuu of her homeland at Tsagaan gol (White river) at the Chandmani soum of Khovd aimag in Mongolia. "There was grass everywhere and we had great and rich summers, winters, spring and fall.

"The herdsmen used to come from the nearest soum, Mankhan, Chandmani and Zereg for the pasture.
"Khar Us Lake has evaporated dramatically within the last four to five years. Even small hand-wells have dried up. There were many small ponds around the lake. None of them exist now."

Diego Redini, 30, who lives at Canneto sull'Oglio, a small village of the Padana Plain in Italy, noted that, "In the last few years summer temperatures have reached very high levels and have been accompanied by a strong humidity, which is a bad climate for cattle.

"In these conditions, in the summer a milk cow produces one third less milk compared to the winter."

Climate Witnesses are already active in their lives and with their communities taking action to deal with climate change impacts and towards reducing their carbon emissions. They are joining with WWF to call on world leaders to also take strong action on climate change and have the courage to sign a new global climate deal in Copenhagen.

Climate Witness: Gail Zawacki, USA

2009-11-02

My name is Gail Zawacki, and for almost 30 years I have lived in western, rural New Jersey, USA. In that time I have planted many gardens, as well as hundreds of saplings in the woods surrounding my little farm.

Until the summer of 2008, I was one of those lucky, oblivious people who believed that though climate change was going to occur, it meant a gradual, linear warming, and that the worst effects would occur far in the future, at some distant, exotic place, losing biodiversity, like maybe in Madagascar. I expected my paradise to remain a protected niche, where a spring-fed creek provided clean cold water, excellent soil had accumulated, and I was no where near the shore where wild storms and rising seas could disturb the inhabitants of the village where I have been so fortunate to live.

Not in my home, in New Jersey! In fact though, from my journey to learn what is happening to trees, I have read enough to know that the terrible results of burning greenhouse gases are going to bring about change that is abrupt, violent, and sooner rather than later - just what is already happening in my own back yard, now.

All my life, I have admired the majesty of trees, and made countless visits to arboretums, and hikes in parks, to seek out the oldest and most venerable specimens that have been spared the widespread clear-cutting of the past three centuries in North America.

As an adult I have planted hundreds of seedlings on my farm and in the woods surrounding. Because I care about them, and also of course have invested quite a bit of time and money and effort, I monitor their growth carefully.

Thus it was I became quite alarmed last summer (2008), when I noticed the leaves of trees becoming wilted, droopy, scorched at the edges, and falling off prematurely. The phenomena was so widespread that out of concern I began to do research, and learned about tree decline, what causes it, and the fact that it is irreversible once such extreme symptoms are visibly apparent.

Around October of fall 2008, the coniferous trees abruptly began dropping needles, and were sprouting ridiculous numbers of cones weighting their branches, in what I learned was a desperate attempt to put all their energy into reproduction under the spectre of demise. By fall 2009 many are bare, and it's now impossible to locate a single specimen that doesn't have yellowing needles. Many have bizarre fountains of sap oozing from split bark.

Witnessing the wholesale degradation of every species of tree, of every age and habitat, convinced me that there had to be an over-riding agent at work. I am not a scientist, and so I am not qualified to diagnose the chemical and biological processes that are occurring. But it is only logical to infer that no particular insect or disease or fungus could be responsible for such universal impact that is readily obvious to the naked eye.

In my ignorance I speculated that perhaps long-term drought, acid rain, decreased snow-pack and/or warmer temperatures leading to an inability to go dormant, might underlie the phenomena.
I considered many causes and still don't have the precise mechanisms because, as I said, I'm neither a botanist nor atmospheric physicist. I know enough to know that I know nothing - the complexities of the interactions of so many agents are a challenge for even the experts. Soil nutrient depletion, invasive species, droughts, and many other factors are muddled together.

I wrote about my concerns to many climatologists, biologists, atmospheric physicists, and foresters. In May I began a blog, www.witsendnj.blogspot.com, to document the symptoms of decline with photos, and post links to scientific research.

This past summer, the symptoms appeared not just on trees but all shrubs, perennials, and even annuals. It became apparent to me that the composition of the atmosphere was the only explanation that fits the empirical facts, when I discovered that aquatic plants such as lotus and water lilies had the same foliar damage, a characteristic stippling from closed stomata, a loss of chlorophyll as the plant loses the ability to photosynthesize, the normal colouration fading as veins become prominent. This is inevitably followed by singed edges, larger brown spots and holes that eventually consume the leaf until it is frayed, or falls off the branch.

Another aspect is the rampant spread of lichens, which are known to thrive in polluted air. As I write now in mid-October, many trees never turned their beautiful fall colours, their leaves just either turned brown or fell off early. Many have no leaves whatsoever, weeks before they should be bare, and are blanketed by the lichen that appears to grow in direct proportion to the loss of tree mass.

It is well documented that ozone from gasoline emissions is toxic to vegetation. But ozone has been around for decades and may even have decreased lately due to the economic downturn.

It is less well known that burning ethanol emits acetaldehyde, which when exposed to UV radiation, creates peroxyacetyl nitrates, PANs, which are even more poisonous than ozone. The EPA, in a rush to remove lead, to move away from dependence on foreign oil, and to satisfy the corn lobby, appears to have ignored harmful consequences of burning ethanol and mandated its addition to gasoline. In fact they now seem to want to increase the proportion! That is why I think the "other" greenhouse gases, as described in this paper are so important to investigate.

If it turns out that ethanol is the primary culprit that is massacring our ecosystem, that would actually be a good thing, because all we have to do is stop burning it and and we could then return to a more leisurely, but just as certain, climaticide from elevated CO2.

It will take a scientist to prove there is a connection between the composition of the atmosphere, and the death of trees. I am just a witness.

Scientific review

A scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel is pending.

Climate Witness: Apa Sherpa, Nepal

2009-10-15

My name is Apa Sherpa. I am 49 years old and I live in Thame, a village in the Solukhumbu district of Nepal, right on the Everest trail. I'm a mountaineer by profession.

I was born and brought up in Thame and have climbed the mountains in this area for more then twenty years. My parents were yak-herders and farmers, but I went into mountaineering. I started by carrying loads for a few expeditions, then slowly became a professional mountaineer. Now, I hold the world record for climbing Mt. Everest for the most times – 19. I also lead many expeditions in this area.

During the past decades, I have observed many changes in the climate in this area. And when I also talk to the people living here I can hear about many such signs of changes. At first we didn't realize that the changes were so severe, but then, we also did not know about anything called climate change.

Now, the changes in weather patterns are drastic. It didn't snow at all during December, January and February, when it should snow heavily, and it finally snowed massively in May, when usually it's dry. The numbers of hot days are also increasing. We saw mosquitoes in Namche Bazaar (altitude- 3440 m) for the first time in 2008 and we also saw a housefly at Everest Base Camp (altitude – 5360 m) which is unheard of. And, of course, the rapid melting of the snow in the mountains and glaciers. For the first time in my life, during the Eco Everest Expedition 2009, I saw running water around Camp 4 and near the summit of Mt. Everest. In fact, at Camp 2 we did not even have to melt snow for drinking, which was very rare in previous expeditions.

The melting glaciers pose an immediate threat due to the ever-increasing glacial lakes. The Imja glacial lake has slowly grown to a massive size in front of my eyes. My wife and I lost all our property and nearly lost our lives when a similar glacial lake Dig Tsho burst in 1985. I know how severe the impacts will be if a lake like Imja would burst. It would mean total devastation and not just for the people in the immediate vicinity but maybe also for people living downstream.

The people in the area are not very aware about these issues and therefore they cannot connect these changes into a single phenomenon. But these changes could have serious consequences for us. I have heard that there are 20 such glacial lakes in Nepal which are in danger of bursting. This not only poses a grave risk to all our property and infrastructure, but our lives. I have also gathered from the local people that the potato yield is not as good as before and that yak numbers are also decreasing – maybe these are the results of change in weather patterns. We have heard incidents of bushfires. And I cannot fathom what diseases mosquitoes and houseflies would bring in.

I am an uneducated person, yet I realize the seriousness of the issue. I hope our senior politicians and the government realize that climate change poses an immediate threat to the people living in the mountainous region. We need to educate the people there and we need resources so that these problems can be solved. I have dedicated my last two Everest ascents to raise awareness about Climate Change issues. This is just a small individual step. And it is definitely not enough. I think we need to work together unitedly if we are to ever find solutions to Climate Change and the problems it is creating.

More high-resolution images are available of Apa and Dawa Sherpa. Please contact Claire Carlton, the Climate Witness Programme Manager, for more information.

Apa and Dawa on "European Expedition"

Kathmandu, Nepal – Legendary mountaineer Apa Sherpa and Everest summiteer Dawa Steven Sherpa are embarking on a European Expedition through 10 European cities starting from Prague, through Brno, Bratislava, London, Rome, Geneva, Chamonix, Vienna, Brussels and finally to Copenhagen to raise awareness about impacts of Climate Change in the Himalayas.

In their European journey, they will meet high-profile politicians and celebrities and people in the streets of these European cities delivering the message from Himalayan communities like the Sherpas, who truly exemplify how a small community literally living at the frontiers of Climate Change impacts can refuse to remain a mute spectator to the injustice meted out to them.

The journey which started with Apa Sherpa taking a Climate Change banner to the Everest Summit during his 19th Record ascent six months, will now culminate in the European continent, one of the highest per capita GHG emitting regions of the world. There, Apa and Dawa will reach out to the people in Europe - the future actions of whose will determine the future of Apa's community and hundreds of millions of other people who live in the drainage system of the Himalayas.

The European Expedition is part of the Climate for Life Campaign spearheaded by WWF Nepal to raise the profile of the Himalayas in the global climate debate in collaboration with Government of Nepal, its development partners, and a large number of non-profit and private organizations.

Speaking at a press meet organized before the start of the Expedition, WWF Nepal Country Representative, Anil Manandhar said, "During Climate Change debates, Himalayas, the third pole has never got the rightful attention of international community." "Apa and Dawa's European Expedition will be crucial in raising awareness about the impacts of Climate Change in the Himalayas taking the issue to the UN Climate Talks in Copenhagen."

On the occasion, Dawa Steven Sherpa said, "The European Expedition will be like climbing Everest. Starting from the Base Camp in Kathmandu, we will be setting up subsequent camps throughout Europe – all helping us to reach our ultimate goal – the Summit - Copenhagen."

Scientific review

Reviewed by: Dr John Sweeney, National University of Ireland Maynooth, Ireland

Glacial lakes are a common feature of the Himalaya in general and the Khumbu Himal region of eastern Nepal in particular. In some of these glacial lakes, water is impounded by moraines. Such lakes where water is stored by moraines are in general hazardous. Outburst floods from such lakes are characterized by extraordinary peak discharges at the onset of the event and entrainment of large quantities of debris. Such lakes appear to be the most common type of glacial lakes now found in Nepal (Yamada and Sharma, 1993).

Glaciers are a key indicator of climate change as they react sensitively to climate (Oerlemans, 1994). The mean annual air temperatures rose rather dramatically in the 20th century (IPCC, 2001). This has most likely caused increasing glacier retreat in many parts of the world. A recent review of glaciers around the world shows that the average loss of length is about 10 meters (m) per year, and this pace is accelerating in many regions ( Lemke et al, 2007).

The case study on the development and climate change in Nepal from Shardul et al., 2003 reveals a significant warming trend in recent decades and are even more evident at higher altitudes. Similarly, Shrestha et al. (1999) also reported, a drastic warming over the last two decades in Nepal.

Climate change scenarios for Nepal across multiple general circulation models meanwhile show the average increase in the mean temperature by1.2°C and 3°C for 2050 and 2100 respectively (Shardul et al., 2003). Similarly, New et al., 2009 shows that temperature extremes will increase by up to 55% (2060s) and 70% (2090s) (http://www.kathmandutocopenhagen.org). This warming trend is likely to have significant impact on Nepal Himalayas- most significantly in terms of glacier retreat and significant increases in the size and volume of glacial lakes, making them more prone to Glacial Lake Outburst Flooding (GLOF). Though the data on the glacier mass balance provides the quantitative information on the increasing or decreasing of glacier, it is rare in the Himalayas of Nepal. However, over the past 30 years, the vast majority of all Himalayan glaciers have been retreating and thinning, with accelerated losses in the last decade (Bajracharya and Mool 2009). A number of recent research (e.g., Fujita et al., 2001; Bajracharya and Mool. 2009) have reasoned climate change as a driver to this decrease in mass balance of Himalayan glacier.

References

J. Oerlemans (1994) Quantifying global warming from the retreat of glaciers, Science 264, 243–245.
Bajracharya, S. R. and P. K. Mool 2009. Glaciers, glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods in the Mount Everest region. Nepal. Annals of Glaciology, 50 (53) London, UK. 81 – 86.
Shardul A., Vivian R., Maarten V. A., Peter L., Joel S. and John R. (2003) development and climate change in nepal: focus on water resources and hydropower.
Mark New, Sarah Opitz-Stapleton, Jagadishwor Karmacharya, Gil Lizcano and Carol McSweeney (2009) Climate Projections for Nepal Global and Regional Model Results, 2009 A regional climate change conference Kathmandu to Copenhagen, 31august-1 September, Kathmandu, Nepal
Wessels, R.L., Kargel, J.S., and Kieffer, H.H. (2001) Global Land Ice Measurements from Space: Documenting the Demise of Earth's Glaciers using ASTER. American Geophysical Union, May.
Shrestha, A. B., Wake, C. P., Mayewski, P. A., and Dibb, J. E. (1999). Maximum temperature trends in the Himalaya and its vicinity: An analysis based on temperature records from Nepal for the period 1971-94. Journal of Climate 12, 2775-2787.
IPCC, 2001 In: IPCC, Editor, Climate Change 2001 — The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001).
P. Lemke et al., "Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground," in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2007), 337–83.
Haritashya,; Bishop, Shroder, Andrew, Bush, Bulley (2009). "Space-based assessment of glacier fluctuations in the Wakhan Pamir, Afghanistan" (PDF). pp. 5–18. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9555-9. http://www.glims.org/glacierdata/data/lit_ref_files/haritashya2009.pdf.

All articles are subject to scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel.

Climate Witness: Muhindo Emilda, Uganda

2009-10-06

My name is Muhindo Emilda. I am 30 years old and I have lived in Kayanja/ Katwe village in Kasese district of Uganda my whole life.

I am a small scale farmer in Kayanja/Katwe area. I have worked on my farm for 20 years now and I plant maize, sunflower, peanuts, cassava and beans. I work with my family on the farm as it the only means of livelihood we have here.

I have noticed changes over the last 20 years I have worked on the farm. My family too has observed the changes and we talk about it. We have kept records of what we harvest in the farm and year in, year out we get less yield. This season we saw the worst as all the plants dried in the farm.

We used to get long rains in by August, but it has changed now to October, while the short rains that we expect in April have changed to May. The long rains are the worst for us as we call it diseases season. We have seen diseases like cholera, dysentery, stomach problems and coughing, which claim a lot of children. The short rains come with less rain than before and it only serves to spoil the farms.

We have noticed other changes in the weather. For instance, we now get warm periods unlike before. This has resulted in an increase in mosquitoes in the area, causing higher incidences malaria. Wild animals are attacking us and we clash at community water points because the forest areas are getting drier very fast.

The consequences are loss of harvest, loss of livelihood and conflict between us and wild animals and diseases. It has changed the way I live as my husband has moved to urban area in search of job. But I still plant the farm hoping one day things will change and we will get bumper harvest like before.

The government should step in and assist us to resolve the situation and plant trees in our region of Kasese. They should educate us on the changing climate otherwise we will remain dark and continue to suffer. We need to develop alternative livelihoods so that we can continue surviving without suffering from the changes that affected our farms.

I try to adapt to changes by storing grains in a granary. I store them using ashes that stop pest and maintain its freshness. It can stay for two years.

Scientific review

A scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel is pending.

Climate Witness: Ann Daniels, UK

2009-09-24

My name is Ann Daniels. I am a mother of four children and live in Devon, in the South West of England. For the past twelve years I have been travelling and working in the Polar Regions, mainly in Nunavut Canada, Northern Russia and the Arctic Ocean.

English | Dutch
Over this time I have completed 6 expeditions on the Arctic sea ice, sledge hauling over 1500 miles, and spending more than 223 days in temperatures well below zero. During my time up 'North' I have witnessed the change in the sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean and experienced more extreme temperatures and unexpected storms. I have worked with the children in the schools in Resolute Bay, Nunavut and the local people in Khatanga in the Taymyr Peninsula, Northern Russia. It saddens me to see how much the change in the environment has effected the indigenous people. Many have lost their traditional methods of living and face a bleak future.

I first learnt how to survive and travel on the Arctic Ocean as part of a relay expedition to the North Pole in 1997. Whilst this expedition had no scientific meaning, it was here that I first understood the nature of sea ice and became passionate about the Arctic and it's ecosystem that is so powerful and yet so fragile. Whilst we encountered open water during this expedition, it was never necessary to swim in the ocean in order to reach the North Pole. However, just 5 years later I took part in a further expedition to the North pole. This time, whilst we hoped to break a world record to become the first all women's team to walk to the North and South poles, we also combined this expedition with collecting scientific data and assisted an American foundation who were also working in the Arctic regions and with various universities in England. During this expedition we came across so much open water that we had to swim many times and use the sledges as canoes in order to reach our destination. The ice was also much more dynamic and constantly fractured and broke as we travelled across it's surface. At times we could barely find enough ice to continue our journey north and zigzagged from one small floe to another. It was a frightening experience, not only from the physical difficulty of crossing the ice but also from the realisation that this majestic and beautiful ice-scape is being threatened from outside forces.

In 2005 I spent 3 weeks in Northern Russia, meeting the local people, learning from them about the changes they are facing and provided school books for the local school. After this I moved up to the Arctic sea ice in the Russian territories and encountered five polar bears. The bears were very aggressive and I can only assume that this is due to a shortage of their natural food source. One bear stalked me for five days. Again the sea ice was very thin and I spent long hours searching for a safe route through the ice and snow.

I have recently returned from The Catlin Arctic survey (2009). A scientific expedition to measure the thickness of the ice and again we witnessed a very dynamic and moving sea ice. Our scientific advisers had told us we would encounter older thicker ice but in fact the average thickness of the ice was relatively thin at just 1.77m, suggesting it was new ice formed only last autumn and not multi-year ice as expected. This was a terrifying discovery and made me even more aware of the tragedy unfolding in the Arctic region.

The Arctic sea ice could disappear in the summer sometime between 2013 and 2040 and the consequences of this will catastrophic to not only the indigenous flora and fauna but for weather patterns globally. Some Arctic species, such as narwhal, hooded and ringed seals, walrus and polar bears are very dependent on particular ice conditions. The loss of Arctic ice jeopardizes the very survival of these ice-dependent species.

As this warming cycle continues, it in turn influences global weather patterns, by changing wind and water currents. The global weather is driven by the differences in air temperature between tropical regions and the poles. As these differences are changed by a warming Arctic, global weather patterns are destabilized, creating new more unpredictable and more extreme weather events at lower latitudes.

My time in the Arctic regions both in Russia, Nunavut and on the sea ice itself has instilled in me a personal need to try and do something to clean up my own act. These regions may be at the edge of our existence but they are so valuable and unique that they deserve our care. I still drive a car when I have to but endeavour to walk and cycle whenever possible or to use public transport if I can. I reuse and recycle but more importantly try not to use packaged goods in the first place and buy local foods in season. I use less energy and water. I spend a lot of time talking to schools about the Arctic regions and the changes that are occurring there and around the world and what they can do in their own lives to make a change. I also give presentations to universities and corporate groups but I believe that our children really are the future and hope for this planet.

I would like to see more expeditions such as the Catlin Arctic survey to try and get to the bottom of what is happening to the sea ice on the Arctic Ocean, where the conditions are complex, ever changing and currently poorly understood.

Climate change is happening and it is up to all us to take an active interest and to becoming involved in trying to find a solution. To start now by taking responsibility and trying to reduce our own carbon footprint. This world is not ours and I would like not only my children but all the animals in the world to inherit a world we can be proud of. Give Mother Nature a helping hand, not a stamping foot.

Scientific review

Reviewed by: Prof. Peter Wadhams

On the whole this is a consistent and accurate description of climate-related changes in the Arctic, which although anecdotal fits in with quantitative observations. The witness has been visiting the Arctic Ocean since 1997 and has reported that in later years (2002 and 2009) the ice cover was much more open, presumably at the same season of the year (although this is not stated explicitly), than on the first occasion that she went there. This is consistent with observations by submarine and from ice camps of a greater degree of break-up of floes and more prevalent leads and polynyas in recent years, leading to increased warming of near-surface water and increased melt.

Her account of encountering unusually aggressive polar bears on sea ice north of Russia is an interesting observation but may not be a consequence of climate change, as many factors can influence the availability of food supply and the behaviour of the bears.

Ann Daniel's story is mostly consistent with current peer-reviewed literature about climate change impacts already happening today in the Arctic. The climate witness story is consistent with anticipated or projected climate change impacts.

A relevant recent reference is M. Wang and J E Overland (2009). A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 36, L07502, doi:10.1029/2009GL037820.

All articles are subject to scientific review by a member of the Climate Witness Science Advisory Panel.