© Eric Baccega / naturepl.com / WWF
The Last Ice Area
As climate change reduces the size and duration of summer Arctic sea ice, scientific projections show it will last the longest above Canada and Greenland. This is the Last Ice Area.
© WWF / Ketill Berger / ketill.berger@filmform.no
What is the Last Ice Area?
As sea ice continues to disappear, the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer months within the coming decade, save for one place.
The exception is a region in the high Arctic of Canada and Greenland projected to be the last stronghold of summer sea ice as the Earth continues to warm due to climate change. Known as the Last Ice Area (LIA), it will be essential as an enduring home for Arctic marine species that need sea ice to survive because the ice will last longer than in the rest of the Arctic.
Together, we have the power to safeguard this globally significant region that will be a last refuge for ice-dependent species, such as polar bears, as the world warms.
Arctic sea ice goes through a seasonal cycle each year. It grows and spreads across the Arctic Ocean through northern fall and winter, even pushing into the North Atlantic and North Pacific by the time it reaches its maximum in February or March. Currently, nearly three-quarters of this sea ice is seasonal, meaning that it melts away through the spring and summer. The portion that survives the melt season is called year-round sea ice.
Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center’s Scientific Visualization Studio. The Blue Marble data is courtesy of Reto Stockli (NASA/GSFC).
Satellites have provided a reliable tool for continuously monitoring changes in the Arctic ice since 1979. Every summer, the Arctic ice cap melts to what scientists call its ”minimum” before colder weather begins to make ice cover increase. This visualization shows the expanse of the annual minimum Arctic sea ice for each year from 1979 through 2022. You can see how the area with the most ice cover corresponds to the Last Ice Area, shown in the map above.
Why is the Last ice area Important?
Sea ice serves many purposes in the Arctic:
- Polar bears, walrus and certain species of seals need sea ice to feed, reproduce and rest. The Arctic sea ice ecosystems are complex and interconnected, supporting a wide variety of life.
- Indigenous peoples use Arctic sea ice as a platform for important subsistence hunting activities which in turn maintains cultural heritage and traditional practices.
- The Arctic sea ice supports tourism, and other industries that contribute to the economy of the region and provide livelihoods for local communities.
- Multi-year sea ice slows the warming of the Arctic reflect sunlight, cooling the region. But as ice melts, darker surfaces absorb more heat, exacerbating climate change.
- The presence of sea ice serves to diminish wind and wave activity, thereby mitigating coastal erosion.
- Multi-year sea ice is far more effective than first-year sea ice at minimizing underwater noise from shipping, for example, as it can absorb and dampen sound more effectively compared to thinner and more porous first-year ice.
About a quarter of the world’s polar bears live in the LIA or near there. Most of the world’s narwhals spend at least part of the year there, and it is home to the largest breeding colonies of thick-billed murres and millions of little auks. Small but vitally important algae, the tiny engines driving the Arctic food web, turn the underside of the sea ice into a kind of hanging garden where shrimp-like creatures graze. The ice algae eventually drift downward and provide nourishment on the ocean floor. There are even organisms here that only thrive on multi-year ice – for these lifeforms the Last Ice Area may be their last chance for survival.
© Richard Barrett / WWF-UK
How long will the multiyear sea ice last in the Last Ice Area?
Arctic sea ice has seen significant declines since satellite observations began in 1978, and this trend is expected to continue. By the 2020s or 2030s, it’s projected that the Arctic may experience ice-free conditions, regardless of efforts to reduce emissions. The loss of sea ice will likely begin in specific regions before spreading throughout the Arctic, including the LIA, impacting not just September but also August and October as temperatures rise.
If warming continues even the Last Ice Area will vanish for months out of the year causing a devastating loss of habitat and accelerating the climate crisis. New research reveals that the Last Ice Area (LIA) has disappeared during the summer months in the past and it will do so again, perhaps sooner than we think.
The total impact of these environmental changes on Arctic ecosystems remains uncertain, but it is undeniable that the species that depend on sea ice—from small ice algae to polar cod, seals and polar bears—will face significant challenges. Their future is likely to be found here, in the LIA.
Solutions
Iceberg, near Tasiilaq, Greenland Sea.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions
The frequency and duration of ice-free periods will only be influenced by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Recent research indicates that at 1.5°C global warming, there is a chance for long-term survival of Arctic summer sea ice in parts of the Arctic Ocean.
Countries must recognize 1.5°C as the uppermost safe limit for global warming. WWF calls for a dramatic course-correction from Arctic governments to reset their climate ambition and action in line with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. This includes the rapid and full phase-out of all fossil fuel production and consumption and a just transformation to 100% renewable energy.
© naturepl.com / Ole Jorgen Liodden / WWF
Putting the Last Ice Area under protection
While reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the only long-term solution, preserving the Last Ice Area is crucial due to its significant role in maintaining the health and functionality of Arctic ecosystems while the Arctic is warming. Safeguarding this climate refuge from industrial activity is imperative for bolstering the resilience of the entire Arctic region.
WWF is dedicated to ecosystem-based management in the LIA by safeguarding distinctive areas and creating a marine spatial plan. Marine spatial planning is not about turning the entire area into a park or protected area. This approach considers the entire ecosystem, aiming to prevent harmful activities while ensuring resilience for wildlife and local communities. We believe those living nearest to the Last Ice Area should drive implementation.
But currently only a fraction of the Last Ice Area is under temporary protection from harmful industrial activities (Tuvaijuittuq Marine Protected Area in Canada).
The Last Ice Area includes Canada and Greenland territories which are within 200 nautical miles of their coastline and areas beyond national jurisdiction in the Central Arctic Ocean, which means that conservation of this area requires both bilateral and international effort.
How do we protect the Last Ice Area?
- Canada should move the Tuvaijuittuq MPA from temporary to permanent protection which covers much of the Canadian portion of the LIA.
- The Greenlandic Government should award permanent protection to the part of the LIA that falls within its marine boundaries.
- Canada, Greenland, the Kingdom of Denmark and the Pikialasorsuaq Commission should work together to collectively preserve Pikialasorsuaq. This area, also known as The North Water Polynya, is a dynamic area of open sea that remains ice-free throughout the winter. It is one of the most biologically productive regions north of the Arctic Circle.
- The Arctic Council/Canadian and Greenlandic governments should propose to designate the Central Arctic Ocean portion of the LIA (beyond national jurisdiction) as a Marine Protected Area to the High Seas Treaty.
- WWF will engage with scientists and Inuit groups to understand and monitor Arctic species that depend on the Last Ice Area.
- WWF will also work to create future predictions for sea ice and the ecosystems in the Last Ice Area (LIA) and assess how suitable the LIA might be for top predators such as whales, seals, and polar bears as they play crucial roles in maintaining ecosystem balance.
- Indigenous communities in and around the LIA should engage and perspectives on marine ecosystems and priorities for Arctic species conservation and management.
- The International Maritime Organization (IMO) should establish limits on shipping and icebreaking within the LIA through shipping regulation measures and guidelines and should decide on tighter regulations on HFO and black carbon.
- Arctic governments should exclude any Industrial activities that would damage the Arctic’s reservoir of multi-year sea ice and threaten Arctic priority species while Inuit use, and cultural values are maintained and preserved.
- WWF will convene all relevant stakeholders to discuss LIA together and contribute to the development of concrete proposals for national and global legislative processes.
WWF is working towards the goal of having the Last Ice Areas under permanent protection by 2030.
© Staffan Widstrand / WWF
Resources
Background
Management
- Natural marine World Heritage in the Arctic Ocean – Identifies sites within LIA as priority areas (2017)
- Identification of Arctic marine areas of heightened ecological and cultural significance: Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (2013)
Discussion and workshops
- Management Options in the LIA For Consideration and Comment by Inuit (2014)
- Report of the Arctic Regional Workshop to Facilitate the Description of Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas (2014)
- Iqaluit LIA workshop (2013)
- Report from the first official consultation session on LIA with Inuit organization representatives – Nuuk (2012)
Expeditions
- Students on Ice (2015)
- Arctic Tern (2014)
- Arctic Tern (2013)
Research
SPECIES
- Greenland shark – Deriving data for Northern Community Management of Arctic ecosystems (2015)
- Testing Methods for Using High-Resolution Satellite Imagery to Monitor Polar Bear Abundance and Distribution (2015)
- Projected Polar Bear Sea Ice Habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago based on WWF sea ice projection for RCP 8.5 (2014)
- Polar bear – Viscount Melville (2013-2014)
- Polar bear – Viscount Melville (2012-2013)
- Polar bear – Baffin Bay – genetic mark recapture (2013)
- Polar bear – Viscount Melville (2012)
- Caribou and Muskoxen – Survey on Melville and Prince Patrick Islands (2012)
BIOPHYSICAL
- Oil spill modeling in the Last Ice Area, including blowouts and ship-source spills (2016)
- North Water Polynya – RACER assessment (2015)
- Geoscience Resource Development Report – Last Ice Area (2014)
- Polynyas in the Canadian Arctic (2014)
- Last Ice Area technical report to better project the potential fate of summer sea ice (2013)
- Areas of Ecological and Biological significance or Vulnerability in the Arctic Marine Environment (2010)
- Geological resources of the Last Ice Area
SOCIOCULTURAL